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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of votes added later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.