Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
