Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.