Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
